This is your May 4, 2020 Pandemic Update
- Global confirmed coronavirus cases – 3,581,871
- Global coronavirus deaths – 248,551
- The US leads in both of these categories
Global Status – May 4, 2020 Pandemic Update
As we predicted on the podcast Friday, the global confirmed cases surpassed 3.5 million over the weekend. The global confirmed deaths by coronavirus will surpass a quarter of a million as soon as the morning numbers start reporting today.
Notable trends around the world include a shift among the countries that have reported more than 1,000 newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours. We added only one new country to that list since Friday – Pakistan. Limited testing in poorer and lesser developed countries is likely the reason this list did not grow more. What we find is that once a country enters this list (1,000 or more newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours), they surge in new cases for some time after that.
For example, while the total number of countries on the list only grew by one since Friday, those on the list Friday accelerated quickly in their total confirmed cases over the weekend. Russia’s total confirmed cases are booming and grew by more than 30% since Friday. Similarly, India’s confirmed case total grew by nearly 35%.
Far From Over In the United States
In the United States, coronavirus is spreading rapidly, even while many states move to reopen. President Trump held a town hall broadcast on Fox News Sunday evening and made headlines when he said total deaths by coronavirus could reach 100,000. The President previously suggested maximum deaths of 55,000 to 65,000. The numbers themselves might have forced the President to change his stance as total confirmed coronavirus deaths in the US are now at 68,602. Deborah Birx, the Coronavirus Response Coordinator, said on Sunday, the task force believes the numbers will reach 100,000 to 240,000 even with social distancing standards in effect.
Nationally the coronavirus is spreading fast. Last week we began tracking the number of states with 500 newly confirmed cases in the previous 24-hour period. On Thursday, there were ten states on the list. On Friday, there were 12. Today there are 15 states with 500 or more newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours.
This map may be the most important thing to watch in the coming days and weeks for those who want to understand how the coronavirus is spreading in the United States. If the number of states reporting 500 or more new cases in the last 24-hour period continues to increase, then the coronavirus is continuing to spread. Further, if the numbers among those states pass 1,000 newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours, then we have entered a second wave of the pandemic’s spread within the United States and the decisions to reopen states was a wrong move.
States at the top end, New York, Massachusetts, California, which were previous hot zones in America, see their number of confirmed cases in the last 24 hours decreasing. States from the middle to lower end of newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours are booming. The coronavirus is spreading fast in the US.
We previously tracked the timeline and spread of the pandemic for the US here and for the globe here. Going forward we will track the growth and spread of the pandemic through these daily updates. The previous trackers will be archived and remain posted for research and record purposes.