This is your May 5, 2020 Pandemic Update

  • Global confirmed coronavirus cases – 3,660,504
  • Global coronavirus deaths – 252,684

The confusing messages continued over the last 24 hours. From Sunday evening to Monday evening the following sequence of events took place in many areas of the country:

  • President Trump publicly raised his expectations of total deaths by coronavirus from 65,000 to 100,000. One hundred thousand is the low number of what Dr. Birx suggested on Sunday morning news programs. She reiterated the expectation that 100,000 to 240,000 could die by the coronavirus in the US. This expectation is following the prediction models the President’s coronavirus task force has been using.
  • States across the country began loosening restrictions on Monday. Many states allowed limited returns to business of restaurants, gyms, and even churches. Many of the states reopening are doing so in a manner that runs counter to the federal guidelines.
  • The University of Washington model that has been frequently cited by the White House raised its estimates of the number of Americans who will die in the pandemic. The new model updates a near doubling of deaths in the US due to the loosening of social distancing requirements.

We are nearly two months into the pandemic, and a coherent message and direction are still not established in the US and many other parts of the world. On one side of the story, things are getting worse. On the other side of the story, we are ready to start moving back to normal.

Conditions for a Second Wave

May 5, 2020 Pandemic Update
States with at least 500 newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours, coronavirus hot spots 

The number of US states with 500 or more confirmed cases in the last 24 hours grew from 15 to 16. Once again, this suggests the continuing spread of the pandemic from the epicenters of New York and New Jersey to the nation at large. This new growth in newly confirmed cases in states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana is occurring while social lockdowns are loosened. Areas that have not seen a lot of the pandemic to date are beginning to see a gradual rise in newly confirmed cases at the same time that people are rushing back to an idea of normalcy.

These opposing realities present a strong potential for building a second wave in the US.

Global Highlights for May 5, 2020 Pandemic Update

 In Europe, a report suggests the number of confirmed cases in Germany is higher than official reports. That suggestion is most likely a fact, and it is most likely a fact for every country in the world right now. The issue is not a matter of deception in most cases. It is a matter of testing shortages and people dying or recovering before testing was available. Around the world, we will see the number rise.

Russia confirmed coronavirus cases
The growth of daily confirmed coronavirus cases in Russia.

Only a few short weeks ago, Russia boasted they had no coronavirus cases. Today they have the seventh-highest total of confirmed cases in the world with more than 155,000 cases and nearly 11,000 newly confirmed cases in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, three doctors who publicly complained about the government’s response to the crisis jumped out the windows of large buildings.